State Navigate surveys in SD-36 and SD-40 show GOP leading in close contests

It has been 33 years since state Democrats have held the majority in state House and the state Senate, as well as occupying the governor’s mansion. And if Republicans have their way, that streak will reach 34 after November 3.

State Navigate, a nonpartisan, 501(c)(3) nonprofit organization, surveyed a pair of key state Senate races in Lancaster County, as well as Lackawanna, Monroe, and Wayne Counties, that PA Dems have identified as critical to achieving their objective of flipping the chamber.

In the 36th Senatorial District in northern Lancaster County, state Rep. Tom Jones (R) has a three-point advantage over incumbent Sen. James Malone by a 48-45% count with the remaining seven percent undecided. Without leaners, the margin was even closer at 46-44%. The +3 margin lies just inside the 3.2% margin of error in the poll of 915 likely voters that was in the field from Sept. 11-13.

The 36th District was a Trump +15 district in 2024, but went for Gov. Josh Shapiro over Sen. Doug Mastriano in the 2022 governor’s race by 0.2 percentage points. The survey also showed that the respondents in SD-36 favor reelecting Shapiro versus State Treasurer Stacy Garrity (R) by 52-42%. Shapiro also has strong job approval ratings from the district at +18.

“SD-36 voters split on President Donald Trump (45% approve / 53% disapprove) and back Josh Shapiro (56% / 38%),” said Executive Director Chaz Nuttycombe. “The 46% who disapprove of Trump and disapprove of Shapiro ate overwhelmingly Malone’s, breaking 90-5, while the 9% who approve of both are Jones’ at 80-8. Unlike some districts, the double-haters here, the 5% who disapprove of both Trump and Shapiro, actually lean Republican, favoring Jones 60-18 and Garrity 55-23. Malone can’t count on the disaffected middle to bail him out; he has to win back Shapiro voters who are crossing over.”

In NEPA, Republican incumbent Sen. Rosemary Brown also has a three-point advantage over Democratic challenger Brian Wrightson, 47-44%, with nine percent still undecided. Before asked if they were leaning one way or another, respondents had the ballot at 43-42% in favor of Brown. The +3 margin also lies just inside the 3.1% margin of error in the poll of 915 likely voters that was in the field from Sept. 11-13.

The 40th District was a Trump +7 district in 2024, but went for Gov. Josh Shapiro over Sen. Doug Mastriano in the 2022 governor’s race by eight percentage points. The survey also showed that the respondents in SD-36 favor reelecting Shapiro versus State Treasurer Stacy Garrity (R) by 55-37%. Shapiro also has strong job approval ratings from this district as well at +18.

“Voters in SD-40 dislike Donald Trump (41% approve / 57% disapprove) and like Josh Shapiro (56% / 38%),” said Nuttycome. “The 45% of the district that disapproves of Trump while approving of Shapiro is Wrightson’s base, breaking for him 80-12. But the 10% who approve of both men are almost entirely Brown’s, at 89-4. The tell for how close this race really is: the 9% of double-haters who disapprove of both Trump and Shapiro favor Wrightson 55-27 and Shapiro 51-25. Wrightson is actually winning the sour-on-everyone middle; his problem is the Shapiro-to-Brown crossover, not the double-haters.”

State Navigate surveyed 915 likely voters in Pennsylvania’s 36th State Senate District from September 11-13, 2026, with an oversample of voters living in the 41st State House District. Text messages were sent to voters by AllianceForge, which directed them to an online survey hosted on the SurveyMonkey platform. The sample was drawn from a voter file provided by L2 and results were weighted by gender, race, age, education, party registration, and State House district to reflect the likely November 2026 general electorate. The margin of error is 3.2% at a 95% confidence level.

State Navigate surveyed 1,004 likely voters in Pennsylvania’s 40th State Senate District from September 11-13, 2026. Text messages were sent to voters by AllianceForge, which directed them to an online survey hosted on the SurveyMonkey platform. The sample was drawn from a voter file provided by L2 and results were weighted by gender, race, age, education, party registration, and township to reflect the likely November 2026 general electorate. The margin of error is 3.1% at a 95% confidence level.

The surveys were designed and conducted by the State Navigate Polling Team, and were not sponsored by any candidate or candidate’s committee.