CPR: Harris Continues to Display Momentum
VP heads Trump in Keystone State survey heading into Democratic Convention
August 14, 2024
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VP heads Trump in Keystone State survey heading into Democratic Convention
Survey shows Democrats outrunning President not only in Pennsylvania but other swing states as well
“In many ways, Harris is unburdened by what has been.”
That analysis comes from Amy Walter, publisher and editor-in-chief of The Cook Political Report, after the group released its latest Swing State poll on Wednesday.
The survey shows Vice President Kamala Harris continues to display momentum with a five percentage-point advantage over former President Donald Trump, 48-43%, in a multiple-candidate race in Pennsylvania.
In a hypothetical two-person contest, Harris has a one-point edge over Trump, 49-48%, in a survey of 411 likely Keystone State voters.
Independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. polled at five percent in the multi-candidate query, while 4% remain undecided.
“With partisans now equally engaged, the next 80-plus days will be a battle of inches centered on (re)defining the vice president’s image and defining the issues over which the presidential election will be fought,” said Walter.
Harris leads among women in the five-person contest, 52-38%, and has a substantial margin among Black voters, 63-22%. She also shows strength among younger and older voters with advantages of 10 and 18 points, respectively, with voters 18-24 (48-38%) and 65 and up (56-38%).
Trump’s advantages come among Latinos, 51-42%, and those without a college degree, 45-42%. He has a four-point margin among voters 30-44 (45-41%)
Independents are breaking towards Harris at the moment, 46-25%, while 15% favor RFK Jr.
Trump’s selection of JD Vance (R-Ohio) as his running mate does not seem to have much, if any, impact in Pennsylvania. Practically the same percentage of voters are more likely (26%) or less likely (27%) to vote for the former President with the addition of the Ohio senator to the ticket.
The survey was conducted prior to the announcement of Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz to the Democratic ticket. But some questions about who Harris should select are enlightening.
Nearly half of the respondents (48%) said that if she were to select Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro that they would be more likely to vote Democrat for president. Walz polled at 14 percent more likely with an equal percentage saying that his selection would make voters less likely.
A slight plurality (50-48%) say they trust Harris more than Trump when it comes to dealing with the economy. Larger percentages favored the VP on the issue of abortion (56-33%), protecting democracy (51-43%), healthcare (53-36%), and protecting social security and medicare (53-40%).
Trump did better on the border and immigration (52-40%), inflation (49-44%) and crime (47-45%).
The Cook Political Report also found that the respondents were evenly split on four separate statements about Harris:
More of those surveyed favored the following statements about Trump:
More than one-third of respondents (36%) said they believe that “Republican rhetoric and extremism” are more to blame than “Democratic rhetoric and extremism” (24%) for the recent rise in political violence in the United States.
Fifty-five percent agreed with the statement that “Kamala Harris is not responsible for Joe Biden’s age or his decision to run again for President,” while 45% favored “Kamala Harris deceived voters by covering up Biden’s declining mental state.”
On the issue of abortion, 65% said that it should be legal in all (26%) or most (39%) cases, while 35% indicated that it should be illegal in most (28%) or all cases (7%).
In collaboration with Cook Political Report and GS Strategy Group, BSG conducted polling in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin among likely 2024 voters from July 26 – August 2, 2024. Surveys were conducted in English using SMS-to-Web and online panel methodologies.
In the aggregate, 2,867 likely voters across the 7 states completed the survey, for a margin of sampling error of ±1.83 at the 95% confidence level. The full dataset included:
435 likely 2024 voters in Arizona (±4.7)
405 likely 2024 voters in Georgia (±4.9)
406 likely 2024 voters in Michigan (±4.9)
403 likely 2024 voters in Nevada (±4.9)
403 likely 2024 voters in North Carolina (±4.9)
411 likely 2024 voters in Pennsylvania (±4.8)
“In many ways, Harris is unburdened by what has been.”
That analysis comes from Amy Walter, publisher and editor-in-chief of The Cook Political Report, after the group released its latest Swing State poll on Wednesday.
The survey shows Vice President Kamala Harris continues to display momentum with a five percentage-point advantage over former President Donald Trump, 48-43%, in a multiple-candidate race in Pennsylvania.
In a hypothetical two-person contest, Harris has a one-point edge over Trump, 49-48%, in a survey of 411 likely Keystone State voters.
Independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. polled at five percent in the multi-candidate query, while 4% remain undecided.
“With partisans now equally engaged, the next 80-plus days will be a battle of inches centered on (re)defining the vice president’s image and defining the issues over which the presidential election will be fought,” said Walter.
Harris leads among women in the five-person contest, 52-38%, and has a substantial margin among Black voters, 63-22%. She also shows strength among younger and older voters with advantages of 10 and 18 points, respectively, with voters 18-24 (48-38%) and 65 and up (56-38%).
Trump’s advantages come among Latinos, 51-42%, and those without a college degree, 45-42%. He has a four-point margin among voters 30-44 (45-41%)
Independents are breaking towards Harris at the moment, 46-25%, while 15% favor RFK Jr.
Trump’s selection of JD Vance (R-Ohio) as his running mate does not seem to have much, if any, impact in Pennsylvania. Practically the same percentage of voters are more likely (26%) or less likely (27%) to vote for the former President with the addition of the Ohio senator to the ticket.
The survey was conducted prior to the announcement of Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz to the Democratic ticket. But some questions about who Harris should select are enlightening.
Nearly half of the respondents (48%) said that if she were to select Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro that they would be more likely to vote Democrat for president. Walz polled at 14 percent more likely with an equal percentage saying that his selection would make voters less likely.
A slight plurality (50-48%) say they trust Harris more than Trump when it comes to dealing with the economy. Larger percentages favored the VP on the issue of abortion (56-33%), protecting democracy (51-43%), healthcare (53-36%), and protecting social security and medicare (53-40%).
Trump did better on the border and immigration (52-40%), inflation (49-44%) and crime (47-45%).
The Cook Political Report also found that the respondents were evenly split on four separate statements about Harris:
More of those surveyed favored the following statements about Trump:
More than one-third of respondents (36%) said they believe that “Republican rhetoric and extremism” are more to blame than “Democratic rhetoric and extremism” (24%) for the recent rise in political violence in the United States.
Fifty-five percent agreed with the statement that “Kamala Harris is not responsible for Joe Biden’s age or his decision to run again for President,” while 45% favored “Kamala Harris deceived voters by covering up Biden’s declining mental state.”
On the issue of abortion, 65% said that it should be legal in all (26%) or most (39%) cases, while 35% indicated that it should be illegal in most (28%) or all cases (7%).
In collaboration with Cook Political Report and GS Strategy Group, BSG conducted polling in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin among likely 2024 voters from July 26 – August 2, 2024. Surveys were conducted in English using SMS-to-Web and online panel methodologies.
In the aggregate, 2,867 likely voters across the 7 states completed the survey, for a margin of sampling error of ±1.83 at the 95% confidence level. The full dataset included:
435 likely 2024 voters in Arizona (±4.7)
405 likely 2024 voters in Georgia (±4.9)
406 likely 2024 voters in Michigan (±4.9)
403 likely 2024 voters in Nevada (±4.9)
403 likely 2024 voters in North Carolina (±4.9)
411 likely 2024 voters in Pennsylvania (±4.8)
“In many ways, Harris is unburdened by what has been.”
That analysis comes from Amy Walter, publisher and editor-in-chief of The Cook Political Report, after the group released its latest Swing State poll on Wednesday.
The survey shows Vice President Kamala Harris continues to display momentum with a five percentage-point advantage over former President Donald Trump, 48-43%, in a multiple-candidate race in Pennsylvania.
In a hypothetical two-person contest, Harris has a one-point edge over Trump, 49-48%, in a survey of 411 likely Keystone State voters.
Independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. polled at five percent in the multi-candidate query, while 4% remain undecided.
“With partisans now equally engaged, the next 80-plus days will be a battle of inches centered on (re)defining the vice president’s image and defining the issues over which the presidential election will be fought,” said Walter.
Harris leads among women in the five-person contest, 52-38%, and has a substantial margin among Black voters, 63-22%. She also shows strength among younger and older voters with advantages of 10 and 18 points, respectively, with voters 18-24 (48-38%) and 65 and up (56-38%).
Trump’s advantages come among Latinos, 51-42%, and those without a college degree, 45-42%. He has a four-point margin among voters 30-44 (45-41%)
Independents are breaking towards Harris at the moment, 46-25%, while 15% favor RFK Jr.
Trump’s selection of JD Vance (R-Ohio) as his running mate does not seem to have much, if any, impact in Pennsylvania. Practically the same percentage of voters are more likely (26%) or less likely (27%) to vote for the former President with the addition of the Ohio senator to the ticket.
The survey was conducted prior to the announcement of Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz to the Democratic ticket. But some questions about who Harris should select are enlightening.
Nearly half of the respondents (48%) said that if she were to select Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro that they would be more likely to vote Democrat for president. Walz polled at 14 percent more likely with an equal percentage saying that his selection would make voters less likely.
A slight plurality (50-48%) say they trust Harris more than Trump when it comes to dealing with the economy. Larger percentages favored the VP on the issue of abortion (56-33%), protecting democracy (51-43%), healthcare (53-36%), and protecting social security and medicare (53-40%).
Trump did better on the border and immigration (52-40%), inflation (49-44%) and crime (47-45%).
The Cook Political Report also found that the respondents were evenly split on four separate statements about Harris:
More of those surveyed favored the following statements about Trump:
More than one-third of respondents (36%) said they believe that “Republican rhetoric and extremism” are more to blame than “Democratic rhetoric and extremism” (24%) for the recent rise in political violence in the United States.
Fifty-five percent agreed with the statement that “Kamala Harris is not responsible for Joe Biden’s age or his decision to run again for President,” while 45% favored “Kamala Harris deceived voters by covering up Biden’s declining mental state.”
On the issue of abortion, 65% said that it should be legal in all (26%) or most (39%) cases, while 35% indicated that it should be illegal in most (28%) or all cases (7%).
In collaboration with Cook Political Report and GS Strategy Group, BSG conducted polling in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin among likely 2024 voters from July 26 – August 2, 2024. Surveys were conducted in English using SMS-to-Web and online panel methodologies.
In the aggregate, 2,867 likely voters across the 7 states completed the survey, for a margin of sampling error of ±1.83 at the 95% confidence level. The full dataset included:
435 likely 2024 voters in Arizona (±4.7)
405 likely 2024 voters in Georgia (±4.9)
406 likely 2024 voters in Michigan (±4.9)
403 likely 2024 voters in Nevada (±4.9)
403 likely 2024 voters in North Carolina (±4.9)
411 likely 2024 voters in Pennsylvania (±4.8)
“In many ways, Harris is unburdened by what has been.”
That analysis comes from Amy Walter, publisher and editor-in-chief of The Cook Political Report, after the group released its latest Swing State poll on Wednesday.
The survey shows Vice President Kamala Harris continues to display momentum with a five percentage-point advantage over former President Donald Trump, 48-43%, in a multiple-candidate race in Pennsylvania.
In a hypothetical two-person contest, Harris has a one-point edge over Trump, 49-48%, in a survey of 411 likely Keystone State voters.
Independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. polled at five percent in the multi-candidate query, while 4% remain undecided.
“With partisans now equally engaged, the next 80-plus days will be a battle of inches centered on (re)defining the vice president’s image and defining the issues over which the presidential election will be fought,” said Walter.
Harris leads among women in the five-person contest, 52-38%, and has a substantial margin among Black voters, 63-22%. She also shows strength among younger and older voters with advantages of 10 and 18 points, respectively, with voters 18-24 (48-38%) and 65 and up (56-38%).
Trump’s advantages come among Latinos, 51-42%, and those without a college degree, 45-42%. He has a four-point margin among voters 30-44 (45-41%)
Independents are breaking towards Harris at the moment, 46-25%, while 15% favor RFK Jr.
Trump’s selection of JD Vance (R-Ohio) as his running mate does not seem to have much, if any, impact in Pennsylvania. Practically the same percentage of voters are more likely (26%) or less likely (27%) to vote for the former President with the addition of the Ohio senator to the ticket.
The survey was conducted prior to the announcement of Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz to the Democratic ticket. But some questions about who Harris should select are enlightening.
Nearly half of the respondents (48%) said that if she were to select Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro that they would be more likely to vote Democrat for president. Walz polled at 14 percent more likely with an equal percentage saying that his selection would make voters less likely.
A slight plurality (50-48%) say they trust Harris more than Trump when it comes to dealing with the economy. Larger percentages favored the VP on the issue of abortion (56-33%), protecting democracy (51-43%), healthcare (53-36%), and protecting social security and medicare (53-40%).
Trump did better on the border and immigration (52-40%), inflation (49-44%) and crime (47-45%).
The Cook Political Report also found that the respondents were evenly split on four separate statements about Harris:
More of those surveyed favored the following statements about Trump:
More than one-third of respondents (36%) said they believe that “Republican rhetoric and extremism” are more to blame than “Democratic rhetoric and extremism” (24%) for the recent rise in political violence in the United States.
Fifty-five percent agreed with the statement that “Kamala Harris is not responsible for Joe Biden’s age or his decision to run again for President,” while 45% favored “Kamala Harris deceived voters by covering up Biden’s declining mental state.”
On the issue of abortion, 65% said that it should be legal in all (26%) or most (39%) cases, while 35% indicated that it should be illegal in most (28%) or all cases (7%).
In collaboration with Cook Political Report and GS Strategy Group, BSG conducted polling in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin among likely 2024 voters from July 26 – August 2, 2024. Surveys were conducted in English using SMS-to-Web and online panel methodologies.
In the aggregate, 2,867 likely voters across the 7 states completed the survey, for a margin of sampling error of ±1.83 at the 95% confidence level. The full dataset included:
435 likely 2024 voters in Arizona (±4.7)
405 likely 2024 voters in Georgia (±4.9)
406 likely 2024 voters in Michigan (±4.9)
403 likely 2024 voters in Nevada (±4.9)
403 likely 2024 voters in North Carolina (±4.9)
411 likely 2024 voters in Pennsylvania (±4.8)
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