Vice President Kamala Harris holds an advantage over former President Donald Trump in Pennsylvania as well as two of the Keystone State’s bellwether counties according to a USA TODAY/Suffolk University poll released Monday night.

Harris, the Democratic candidate, has a three-point lead over the Republican nominee, 49-46%, in a survey of 500 likely voters in the Commonwealth in a poll conducted Sept. 12-15. The results are within the poll’s margin of error of +/-4.4.

Pennsylvania is considered the most important swing state to both of the campaigns and its 19 electoral votes will go a long way to determining the occupant of the White House for the next four years.

The survey results showed that the vice president also led the former president in Northampton and Erie counties – two counties that have picked the winner of the last two presidential elections.

Harris had a five-point edge (50-45%) over Trump in Northampton County, located in eastern Pennsylvania and is the home of the cities of Bethlehem and Easton. President Joe Biden carried the county, 50-49%, in 2020 after Trump topped Hillary Clinton, 50-46%, in 2016.

In the northwest corner of the Commonwealth, Harris carries a four-point advantage over Trump, 48-44% – a larger margin than either winner produced in the last two elections. Biden squeezed out a 1-point edge (50-49%) in winning in 2020, while Trump had a two-point triumph in Erie, 49-47%, four years earlier.

Suffolk surveyed 300 likely voters in each of those counties with a margin of error of +/- 5.7 points.

The gender gap is widening in the Keystone State, as Harris leads with female voters in Northampton by 18 points (55-37%) and by 20 points in Erie (55-35%). Trump holds the advantage with male voters but not with the same margins (Northampton 53-44%, Erie 52-42%).

“This is female-gender advantage on steroids,” said David Paleologos, director of the Suffolk University Political Research Center. “In all three data sets, the women margin is around almost twice around Trump’s edge among men.”

In the U.S. Senate contest, Democratic incumbent Bob Casey Jr. leads Republican challenger Dave McCormick, 47.0% to 42.8%.

In the statewide poll, abortion rights ranked as the most important issue for 11% of Pennsylvania’s likely voters. The top issue for likely voters was inflation/economy at 35%, followed by immigration, at 14%, and “bringing the nation together,” at 13%.

This is a developing story and will be updated.