With a little more than two months remaining until Pennsylvanians head to the polls, Gov. Josh Shapiro’s reelection campaign received some more good news on Tuesday.

In a poll of 760 likely voters in the Commonwealth, Shapiro holds a 16-point advantage over Republican challenger Stacy Garrity in the governor’s race. The poll was conducted by the New York Times, Philadelphia Inquirer, and Siena University and was in the field from Aug. 17-21.

The governor received 55 percent support from respondents, while Garrity, the state treasurer, pulled in 39%. Shapiro led across all categories, including a 23-point margin with women (58-35%). Younger voters also leaned toward the 52-year-old governor with 67% of those 18-29 and 61% of 30-44-year-olds casting their lot with Shapiro.

Garrity showed best with voters 45 and up with 44% of voters between 45-64 backing the state treasurer and 43% of those over 65 supporting her. There was also sharp division among the race/ethnicity categories with Shapiro overwhelmingly getting black support (95-4%) and Garrity trailing by just six (50-44%) among whites.

The governor continues to get strong reviews for his job performance with 60% strongly or somewhat approving of his work. Older voters are most supportive of Shapiro with 64% saying they approve of his performance. The governor is also thought of favorably with 61% with a positive opinion and a +27 overall.

Garrity is also positively thought of at 36% and +10 but still suffers from a lack of name recognition. Nearly 1 in 7 (14%) of respondents indicated they had not heard of the state treasurer, while nearly 1 in 4 (23%) did not or refused to offer an opinion.

Nearly half of those surveyed indicated that Shapiro has been “about right on support of Israel,” while 1 in 5 say he has not been supportive enough of the Jewish state. A third of respondents (33%) said Garrity was “about right” in her support, while 46% did not know or chose not to respond.

President Donald Trump received low marks from those surveyed, as nearly half of respondents (49%) strongly disapprove of his job performance for a minus-21 rating overall. Three in four (75%) young voters disapprove of his handling of the job. The president’s best marks came from white voters (44%) and those without a college degree (44%).

Favorability

• Sen. John Fetterman | 49-40% (+9)
  Men: 54-39% (+15). Women: 47-43% (+4). 18-29: 30-57% (-27). 65+: 57-37% (+20)
• Sen. Dave McCormick | 39-30% (+9)
  Men: 47-28% (+19). Women: 34-32% (+2). 18-29: 30-42% (-12). 45-64: 54-26% (+28)
• Pope Leo XIV | 57-20% (+37)

Trump Approval Marks

• Economy. 39-61% (-22)
• Cost of Living. 33-66% (-33)
• Immigration. 44-55% (-11)
• Israeli-Palestinian Conflict. 36-61% (-25)
• War in Iran. 32-66% (-34)

Control of U.S. House of Representatives

• Democrats 53%, Republicans 44%
  18-29: (D) 71-28%. 30-44: (D) 63-31%. 45-64: (R) 50-47%. 65+: 50-50%
  Whites: 49-49%. Blacks: (D) 87-12%. College Degree: (D) 63-36%. No Degree: (R) 50-46%

Which Guberatorial Candidate Would Do Better Job?

• Handling the State’s Econony. Shapiro 55-40%
• Dealing with the Cost of Living. Shapiro 56-39%
• Dealing with the Trump Administration. Shapiro 52-43%
• Doing What’s Best for Ordinary Pennsylvanians. Shapiro 56-39%
• Handling Immigration. Shapiro 52-43%

Miscellaneous

• Construction of Data Centers. Support 33%, Oppose 62%
• Is the Democratic Party … Too far to the left 50%, Too far to the right 11%, Not too far either way 33%
• Is the Republican Party … Too far to the right 47%, Too far to the left 5%, Not too far either way 42%
• If Shapiro Runs for President, How Likely Would You Be to Consider Supporting him for the Party’s Nomination. Very Likely 47%, Somewhat Likely 39%, Not too Likely 9%, Not at all Likely 4%.

The margin of sampling error is plus or minus 4.6 percentage points among the likely electorate and plus or minus 4.5 percentage points among registered voters. For this poll, which was funded with support from The Philadelphia Inquirer, interviewers spoke with 760 voters in Pennsylvania from Aug. 17 to 21, 2026.
The poll was conducted by telephone using live interviewers. Overall, over 95 percent percent of respondents were contacted on their cellphones. Voters were selected for the survey from a list of registered voters. The list contains information on the demographic characteristics of every registered voter, allowing us to make sure we reach the right number of voters of each party, race and region. For this poll, interviewers placed more than 100,000 calls to nearly 47,000 voters.