What a difference a day makes.

According to the latest Quinnipiac Poll, Republican Senator Pat Toomey leads his Democratic opponent Katie McGinty 49% to 39%.

So how did McGinty go from her best polling performance to possibly her worst? Well, for that answer we have to dig into the crosstabs.

Demographics

McGinty leads among just two groups in this survey, Democrats (79/9) and non-whites (54/23).

18 to 34 year-olds were tied between the two candidates (40/40).

Meanwhile, Toomey is ahead among: Republicans (86/6), white men (59/31), those without a college degree (56/32), independents (55/30), 50 to 64 year-olds (55/33), whites (55/35), those with a college degree (54/40), men (53/35), white women (52/38), 35 to 49 year-olds (50/42), 65 year-olds and older (49/42) and women (45/42).

There is still a fifteen point gender gap but it must be massively disappointing to the McGinty camp that Sen. Toomey leads among women.

Approval/Favorables

Sen. Toomey’s approval rating is actually lower than his level of support in a head-to-head matchup with McGinty. 47% approve of the job he is doing against 39% who disapprove. His numbers are only underwater with Democrats, non-whites and 18 to 34 year-olds.

At the same time, Toomey recorded a 44% favorable rating as well as a 34% unfavorable rating. McGinty has an even 29/29 favorable/unfavorable split with 41% saying they haven’t heard enough about her.

This survey was conducted by Quinnipiac University using live interviewers calling land lines and cell phones from June 30th to July 11th. They contacted 982 registered voters in Pennsylvania. The margin of error is +/- 3.1%.

Analysis

“Republicans, at least in Pennsylvania, can exhale. Sen. Pat Toomey has a comfortable lead in his bid to keep this GOP Senate seat safe. A welcome development in the turbulent and polarizing landscape where Donald Trump roams,” said Tim Malloy, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Poll.

Altogether, it shouldn’t be a surprise that Quinnipiac’s results were so different from NBC’s. After all, their presidential surveys vary from showing Trump up two to Clinton up nine.

We’ve touched on the issues some have with Quinnipiac’s survey but in reality these results are almost exactly the same as last month’s.

Ultimately, this contest will be decided by whether the demographics of voters on election day looks more like Quinnipiac’s sample or NBC’s.