Katie McGinty is on the upswing.

The latest Franklin & Marshall poll shows the Democratic nominee with a one point lead over Republican incumbent Senator Pat Toomey.

Among likely voters, McGinty leads Toomey 39% to 38% with 23% undecided. Just among registered voters, though, McGinty is ahead 38% to 30% with 32% undecided.

Approval and Favorables

Just 25% (4% excellent, 21% good) of Pennsylvanians approve of the job Sen. Toomey is doing while 52% disapprove (30% fair, 22% poor).

Furthermore, only 23% have a favorable opinion of the incumbent (8% strongly, 15% somewhat). 40% have an unfavorable opinion (23% strongly, 17% somewhat).

McGinty’s ratings are slightly better with 25% having a favorable opinion (7% strongly, 18% somewhat) and 25% having an unfavorable opinion (16% strongly, 9% somewhat).

Perhaps most distressing for Toomey’s campaign is the fact that only 24% of respondents feels he deserves re-election whereas 51% believe it’s time for a change.

Demographics

The Democratic nominee is ahead among the following groups: slightly liberal (78/3), extremely (78/4), Democrats (66/7), Philadelphia residents (61/12), Allegheny residents (55/32), Non-whites (49/7), those with a college degree (49/26), Southeast residents (49/27), unaffiliated with a religion (47/21), those that don’t own a gun (46/23), females (44/22), part-time workers (44/23),  those who aren’t born again Christian or Fundamentalist (43/24), those making more than $75,000 (43/28), not currently married (41/30), those making between $35,000 and $75,000 (41/31), over 55 years-old (40/38), singled and never married (39/18), under 35 years-old (38/21), whites (37/32), married (37/35), full-time workers (36/29), moderates (35/22), 35 to 54 years-old (35/27), Northwest residents (35/30), Catholics (35/33), Independents (33/20), those with some college (32/31), Northeast residents (31/28).

Meanwhile, the Senator is ahead among the following groups: extremely conservative (76/3), Republicans (63/5), slightly conservative (58/3), born again Christian or Fundamentalist (51/20), Southwest residents (45/21), gun owners (42/24), Protestants (39/31), males (39/32), retirees (39/35), those with a high school diploma or less (37/23), Central residents (34/22), those making less than $35,000 (32/30).

This poll was conducted by the Center for Opinion Research at Franklin & Marshall College on behalf of the Center for Politics and Public Affairs. They surveyed 661 registered Pennsylvania voters, including 389 likely voters, from July 29th to August 1st. The margin of error is +/- 4.8% for the registered voters results and +/- 6.3% for the likely voters results.