PA-01: Internal Poll Puts Ehasz In Range of Fitzpatrick

One released internal poll deserves another in Pennsylvania’s 1st Congressional District.

Days after Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick’s campaign unveiled a survey showing the Republican incumbent up by double digits, his Democratic challenger Ashley Ehasz countered with numbers showing her down by just five points, 50-45%.

The poll was conducted by Upswing, a Democratic research and strategy firm.

Ehasz, a veteran and former Apache helicopter pilot, has held steady in support since a June survey from the same group showed her down by two points, 47-45%.

Fitzpatrick’s internal poll from Public Opinion Strategies (POS) gave the three-term incumbent a 14-point advantage (54-40%).

Upswing’s research, though, found that after informing respondents about Fitzpatrick’s claims of independence versus Ehasz’s background, as well as the Republican’s “support for a nationwide abortion ban,” support shifted toward the challenger, 51-44%.

“PA-01 is an overwhelmingly pro-choice district currently represented by the overwhelmingly anti-choice Brian Fitzpatrick,” said Victoria Casarrubbias, campaign spokesperson. “Ashley believes that reproductive decisions should be made between a woman and her doctor, rather than politicians, and this poll shows that Bucks and Montgomery County voters vehemently agree. The pathway to victory for Ashley in November is clear: when voters learn the truth that Brian voted for a national abortion ban that would overturn Pennsylvania state law, they pull their support from the incumbent and choose Ashley by 7 points.”

In 2017, Fitzpatrick voted for H.R. 36 that would have amended the federal criminal code to make it a crime for any person to perform or attempt to perform an abortion if the probable post-fertilization age of the fetus is 20 weeks or more. And five years later, he cast an opposing vote to the Women’s Health Protection Act of 2022, that would have prohibited governmental restrictions on the provision of, and access to, abortion services.

“Congressman Fitzpatrick has always stood, and will continue to stand, firmly in support of Pennsylvania’s current law, which allows abortion to be legal through the first 24 weeks of pregnancy,” said his campaign in an email statement. “His commitment to protecting women’s health remains unwavering, including safeguarding access to contraception and IVF.

“(Ehasz’s) characterization of H.R. 36 – which allows abortions by choice for five months and abortions for medical necessities for nine months – as a “ban” shows how dishonest she remains. Our Democrat senator Bob Casey Jr. voted for this same exact measure. Is Ehasz claiming that Sen. Casey voted for a “ban?” She won’t, because she knows it is a lie.”

Upswing Research & Strategy conducted a survey among 400 likely general election voters from September 4-10 using mixed mode methodology; we conducted 269 interviews via live calls on landlines and cells and 131 interviews via SMS, otherwise known as text to web. The margin of error is +/- 4.9%.

Note: updated to reflect additions to quotes from spokespeople

4 Responses

  1. Brian Fitzpatrick is so extreme on Israel. He rubber-stamped these bombing in Beirut by cozying up to Netanyahu his entire career, forget out just the past month.

  2. It makes a major difference in control of the House if he loses. He has voted in what Republicans could call an erratic fashion, but he still caucuses with the R.s.

    1. HE cannot return to office after the job House Republicans did with the majority. I’ll vote for him in 2026, not in 2024 though. He needs time in the political penalty box.





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