Nyc mayor debate

NYC Mayor Race: Live Odds Tracker

Author: Mike Breen

New Yorkers can legally trade on how they think the New York City mayoral election will pan out. Zohran Mamdani is the favorite to win, but Andrew Cuomo and Eric Adams appear to be fighting to the bitter end. 

Anyone with a strong opinion can trade their opinions on Kalshi, and back them up with real money. Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated platform available to anyone aged 18 or over in the United States. The commercial prediction market platform is growing fast as customers throughout the country take advantage of the opportunity to put their money where their mouths are.  

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Updated NYC Mayor race odds at Kalshi

The New York City mayoral race odds are ever-changing, but New Yorkers can track the odds here. Kalshi will be the first to know if Mamdani’s momentum begins to fail, as it will quickly reflect in market pricing.  

Latest updates in NYC Mayor race 

  • Sept. 3 – The New York Times reported that the Trump administration discussed a job for Adams in exchange for his dropping out of the mayoral race. Republican Curtis Sliwa also had similar discussions. Both candidates dropping out would improve Cuomo’s chances against Mamdani. 
  • Sept. 2 – Former New York City mayor Bill de Blasio endorsed Mamdani, praising Mamdani’s plans to address the city’s affordability problems. Mamdani has called for free city buses, rent freezes, and state-run grocery stores with lower prices for New Yorkers. 
  • Aug. 27 – Incumbent mayor Eric Adams apologized for the “distraction” his ongoing corruption scandals caused New Yorkers. Adams was accused of fraudulently securing campaign matching funds through campaign donations placed on behalf of Turkish nationals. The Trump administration dismissed the charges in April. 
  • Aug. 13, 2025 – Mamdani releases attack ad linking Cuomo to Jeffrey Epstein. Both men’s odds hold steady. 
  • Aug. 8, 2025 – Cuomo attacks Mamdani for living in a rent-controlled apartment. Cuomo’s odds remain around 10%.

Market analysis: Candidates, debates and scandals

Former New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo is running as an Independent. His loss in the primary was a surprise to pollsters, but Mamdani’s odds to become the next mayor were 77% on June 24. Cuomo’s odds opened at 10% and only peaked at 18%. 

Cuomo attacked Mamdani for living in a rent-controlled apartment while running on a “Socialist” platform. Mamdani weathered the attack, and even though he was briefly playing defense, Mamdani led Cuomo 46% to 26% in a September 2025 poll.   

Eric Adams has run well below the other candidates. Going into primary week, his net approval rating was 45% disapproval, below Donald Trump but above Elon Musk in a reliably Democratic city. His odds of winning the mayoral race were at 2%, just below Republican Curtis Sliwa’s 3% implied probability. 

Adams’ bribery and corruption scandals drove his approval ratings into the ground, but the appearance of a quid pro quo with the Trump administration to trade Adams’ charges for immigration raid assistance made him even more unpopular in the Democratic city. 

The Trump administration offered Adams a position in the administration after his term to get him out of the race and improve Cuomo’s chances of defeating Mamdani. Sliwa could get a similar offer. 

Timeline: Key dates

  • June 24, 2025 – New York City held its Democratic primary for its mayoral candidate. 
  • July 1, 2025 – Politico reports that Mamdani secured an “easy” victory after the ranked choice votes were released. Mamdani’s odds were at 72%. Adams was at 21%, near their peak. 
  • Nov. 4, 2025 – NYC Mayoral election 

Kalshi election prediction markets vs. the polls

Kalshi uses the wisdom of the crowds to forecast election outcomes. In a market like Kalshi’s, traders are punished with real-money losses for being wrong. So, they’re incentivized to do a little more research to make the right prediction. 

Ordinary New Yorkers aren’t the only ones putting their own skin in the game. Traders across the country can bring their local knowledge of politics to weigh in on each candidate’s chances. Kalshi’s markets represent a broad consensus of live odds instead of polling models that may include possibly outdated assumptions.

Because Kalshi’s NYC mayor market prices update in real time as traders buy and sell contracts, they reflect the latest aggregated forecast for who will win. That means New Yorkers can see a dynamic, data-driven estimate of mayoral candidates’ chances, instead of relying only on polls or speculation.