The good polling news continues for Gov. Josh Shapiro as he campaigns for a second term in Harrisburg.

In the latest survey from the Center for Public Opinion at Franklin & Marshall College, Shapiro has widened his lead over Republican challenger Stacy Garrity to 25 points, leading the state treasurer, 50-25%. The good news for Garrity? Eighteen percent of respondents did not have a choice or refused to answer. The bad news? Even if they all broke for the GOP candidate and adding in the margin of error (+/-5.5%), she would still end up 1 1/2 points shy of the governor.

Shapiro’s job approval ratings are holding up well considering how much pessimism voters express. About the same number of voters believe he is doing an “excellent” or “good” job (47%) as governor as believe he is doing a “fair” or “poor” job (47%). 

The poll found that Pennsylvania’s registered voters are deeply concerned about their personal finances, experiencing significant economic stress, and increasingly dissatisfied with President Donald Trump’s performance.

Voters say the economy (31%) is the most important problem facing the state. Among those who mention economic problems, Democrats lead Republicans as the party that can best handle the issue, 47% to 23%, which is a larger advantage for Democrats than in June when it was 42% to 24%. The economy is the top concern of every partisan group. Nearly half (44%) of respondents say they are “worse off” financially than a year ago.

Economic pessimism and concern about the economy is a direct result of the difficulties the state’s registered voters have paying for necessities. For example, more than half of the state’s voters say it is “very difficult” or “somewhat difficult” to pay their utility bills (57%) or to pay for groceries (55%). Nearly four in five voters had at least some difficulty paying for one or more of these expenses, with sizable numbers of voters in all partisan groups, Republican (74%), Democrat (79%), and independent (71%), saying they had some difficulty paying for at least one of the six listed expenses.

Fewer voters believe President Trump is doing an “excellent” or “good” job (27%) as president than believe he is doing a “fair” or “poor” job (73%), which is a sizable decline since our October poll when his positive approval rating was 41%. President Trump’s positive approval rating among his base, white voters without a college degree (31%), has been declining and is now lower than Governor Shapiro’s rating (41%) among this group.

The president’s approval ratings for his specific policy actions around immigration, foreign affairs, and inflation have all declined since October. The Trump administration ratings for dealing with immigration slid from 47% “excellent” or “very good” in October to 38% now. The administration’s rating for handling foreign policy matters has declined from 42% to 26%. His largest proportional decline is for his administration’s handling of inflation, falling from 31% positive in October to 15% today. Only one in three (33%) registered voters believes that the president’s policies have helped them personally. Democrats currently lead Republicans by 12 points, 48% to 36%, in their preferences for the US House of Representatives.

Pennsylvania

Do you think things are generally headed in the right direction or off on the wrong track?
Right Direction 41% | Wrong Track 45% | Do Not Know 15%

The most important problem facing Pennsylvania today?
Economy, Finances 21% | Government, Politicians 12% | Taxes 11% | Data Centers, AI 6%

Are you and your family better off, worse off, or about the same financially as a year ago?
Better off 14% | Worse off 44% | About the same 41%

How about a year from now?
Better off 20% | Worse off 32% | About the same 38%

Artificial Intelligence

How often do you use AI in your daily life?
Every day 12% | Most days 18% | Once in a while 23% | Rarely 22% | Never 25%

Should AI companies be more closely regulated by the federal government?
Yes, definitely 59% | Yes, probably 25% | No, probably not 7% | No, definitely not 2%

Would you favor or oppose having a data center built in your community?
Strongly favor 4% | Somewhat favor 9% | Somewhat oppose 16% | Strongly oppose 63%

Job Performance / Favorability Ratings

Gov. Josh Shapiro: Excellent job 20% | Good 27% | Fair 24% | Poor 23%

President Donald Trump: Excellent 13% | Good 14% | Fair 14% | Poor 59%

Trump Grades

Handling Immigration: A 26% | B 12% | C 8% | D 9% | F 45%

Handling Foreign Policy: A 11% | B 15% | C 16% | D 7% | F 50%

Dealing With Inflation: A 3% | B 12% | C 18% | D 15% | F 51%
A=Excellent, B=Very Good, C=Average, D=Below Average, F=Fail

2026 Election

Pennsylvania Governor: Josh Shapiro 50% | Stacy Garrity 25%

Generic Congressional: Democrat 48% | Republican 36% | Other 2%

Enthusiasm

Will you vote in the November election?
Certain to vote 83% | Will probably vote 9% | Chances 50-50 will vote 5% | Don’t think will vote 2%

Are you paying attention to the 2026 elections?
Very much interested 55% | somewhat interested 34% | Not very interested 10%

Do you follow what’s going on in government and politics?
Most of the time 59% | Some of the time 29% | Only now and then 8% | Hardly at all 4%

Identity

Republicans: How do you view yourself?
Trump Republican 40% | Traditional Republican 41% | Something else 16%

Democrats: How do you view yourself?
Progressive Democrat 43% | Centrist Democrat 37% | Something else 7%

Miscellaneous

Primary Source for News: Internet 33% | Cable TV 22% | Network TV 17% | Social Media 11%

Cable Network: Fox News 43% | CNN 11% | MSNow 11% | Newsmax 4%

Attention to Politics: Most of the time 59% | Some of the time 29% | Now and Then 8% | Hardly at all 4%

Liberal, Moderate or Conservative: Moderate 36% | Conservative 34% | Liberal 26%

Creating More Laws to Regulate Gun Ownership: Strongly favor 38% | Somewhat favor 22% | Somewhat oppose 12% | Strongly oppose 26%

Abortion: Legal under any circumstances 40% | Legal under certain circumstances 47% | Illegal in all 12%

Toplines | Summary

The survey findings presented in this release are based on the results of interviews conducted August 17 – 23, 2026. The interviews were conducted at the Center for Opinion Research at Franklin & Marshall College. The data included in this release represent the responses of 501 registered Pennsylvania voters, including 213 Democrats, 208 Republicans, and 80 independents.

The sample error for this survey is +/- 5.5 percentage points when the design effects from weighting are considered. The sample error for questions based on subgroups is larger. In addition to sampling error, this poll is also subject to other sources of non-sampling error. Generally speaking, two sources of error concern researchers most. Non-response bias is created when selected participants either choose not to participate in the survey or are unavailable for interviewing. Response errors are the product of the question and answer process. Surveys that rely on self-reported behaviors and attitudes are susceptible to biases related to the way respondents process and respond to survey questions.