While still within the margin of error, Vice President Kamala Harris continued her string of strong polling numbers against former President Donald Trump in the latest survey from Franklin & Marshall College.

The survey results showed Harris with a three-point advantage over Trump, 49-46%, in a multi-candidate race with third parties and leaning voters included. A previous F&M poll in early August also gave the vice president a three-point margin vs. the former president, 46-43%, with Robert F. Kennedy Jr. polling at six percent. He has since dropped out of the contest. The three points that separate the candidates are within the poll’s 4.1% margin of error.

Harris has not polled lower than 48 percent in the Keystone State since the end of July, while Trump has topped the mark just three times in the last eight surveys.

‘Turnout is undoubtedly a key variable in this race and the balance of regular and less frequent voters will be determinative: Harris leads among those who regularly vote, 51% to 47%, but Trump has an advantage among less frequent voters, 47% to 46%,” wrote Berwood Yost, director of the Center for Opinion Research at Franklin & Marshall College.

F&M also polled the U.S. Senate matchup between Democratic Bob Casey Jr. and Republican Dave McCormick and found the three-term incumbent with a 48-40% advantage in the race. McCormick has been headway into a 12-point deficit (48-36%) that he faced after the last poll by the Center for Public Opinion.

Casey holds a five-point lead (48.2-43.1%) in the average of the last five Pennsylvania polls compiled by PoliticsPA. It is the third time in the last six surveys that he has topped the 48-mark, while McCormick did not exceed 40% for the fourth time in the last nine.

Few Pennsylvania voters are splitting their tickets in the presidential and US senate races, wrote Yost. Nearly half (47%) of the voters are Harris-Casey voters and two in five (39%) are Trump-McCormick voters. There are a small proportion of Trump-Casey (2%) and Trump-Other (2%) voters and virtually no Harris-McCormick or Harris-Other voters.

Presidential

• Best understands concerns of ordinary Americans
  • Harris 47-41 (+6)
• Most prepared to handle economy
  • Trump 50-39 (+11)
• Closest to your view on abortion, same-sex marriage
  • Harris 51-37 (+14)
• Better handle job of commander-in-chief
  • Trump 47-43 (+4)
• Character and good judgment needed to be president
  • Harris 50-36 (+14)
• Most honest and trustworthy
  • Harris 48-32 (+16)
• Were Trump’s actions to try to remain in power after 2020 elections serious crimes?
  • Yes, Serious Crime 56%
  • No, Not a Serious Crime 39%

U.S. Senate

• Are you certain who you will vote for?
  • Certain 88%
  • Still Making Up Their Mind 11%
• Most important in deciding who to support
  • Agree with policies in general 9%
  • Economic policies 9%

Job Performance

• Gov. Josh Shapiro
  • Excellent 27%, Good 23%, Fair 26%, Poor 16%
  • Excellent-Good total (50%) has fallen since high of 54% in April
• President Joe Biden
  • Excellent 14%, Good 21%, Fair 13%, Poor 50%
  • Excellent-Good total (35%) has held steady since April.
  • Poor number has been at 50%+ since August 2022
• Sen. Bob Casey Jr.
  • Excellent 15%, Good 22%, Fair 21%, Poor 27%
  • Excellent-Good total (37%) down from 39% in April
  • Poor is highest since at least August 2007

Favorability

• Biden -13 (43-56)
• Harris -3 (48-51)
• Trump -9 (45-54)
• Casey +2 (41-39)
• McCormick -14 (30-44)

Enthusiasm

• Are you planning to vote in November?
  • Certain 92%, Probably 4%, Fifty-Fifty 2%
• Interested in the 2024 Elections
  • Very Much Interested 72%
  • Somewhat Interested 21%
• On a 10-Point Scale, how much effort will you put into voting?
  • Will make very effort to vote (10 on 10-point scale) 82%
• Do you know who you will vote for for president?
  • Certain 93%
  • Still making up mind 7%

Guns

• Do you own a gun?
  • No, 61% | Yes, 39%
• Favor creating more laws to regulate gun ownership
  • Yes, 60% | No, 38%
    • “Yes” has been above 60% in each of last four surveys (high 62%)

Abortion

• Your opinion on abortion
  • 38%, Legal under any circumstances
  • 54%, Legal under certain circumstances
  • 7%, Illegal in all circumstances
    • 92% who think abortion should be legal under any/certain circumstances is highest since at least March 2021

Miscellaneous

• A Vote for Donald Trump
  • 73% for Trump
  • 27% against Harris
• A Vote for Harris
  • 56% for Harris
  • 41% against Trump
• Generic Ballot for U.S. House
  • Democrat 47%, Republican 42%
• Republicans: Trump or Traditional
  • Trump Republican 48%, Traditional Republican 44%
• Democrats: Progressive or Centrist
  • Centrist 41%, Progressive 40%

• Direction of Pennsylvania
  • 41% right direction, 48% wrong track
  • Right Director down 2% from August, Up 13% from Sept. 2022
• Most Important Problem in PA
  • 28%, Economy, finances; 9%, Government, politicians
  • Economy up 5% from August, Up 7% from Sept. 2022
• Are you better off financially than you were a year ago?
  • 14% better, 46% worse, 40$ about the same
  • Better up 4%, Worse down 7% from Sept. 2022
• Will you be better or worse off a year from now?
  • 24% better, 15% worse, 36% same
  • Better up 8%, Worse down 21% from Sept. 2022

• Amount of Economic, Military Aid to Israel
  • 45% too much, 23% right amount, 20% not enough
• Amount of Development, Humanitarian Aid to Palestinians
  • 32% too much, 17% right amount, 31% not enough
• Support for Ukraine in War With Russia
  • 31% provide more support to Ukraine; 30% maintain current level; 19% provide less support; 15% withdraw all support
• Border
  • 48% say devote more resources to controlling illegal immigration at U.S. border; 26% say devote resources to address causes that cause people to leave

• Primary Source for News
  • Internet (other than social media) 30%, Cable TV 28%, Network TV 16%, Social Media 10%, Daily Newspaper 6%
• Cable Network Relied on Most
  • Fox News 42%, MSNBC 20%, CNN 17%, NewsMax 8%

The data included in this release represent the responses of 890 registered Pennsylvania voters, including 399 Democrats, 366 Republicans, and 125 Independents.

The sample error for this survey is +/- 4.1 percentage points when the design effects from weighting are considered. The sample error for questions based on subgroups is larger.