It’s been five months since we published our latest PoliticsPA congressional vulnerability rankings for the Pennsylvania delegation in the U.S. House. Our rankings have not changed dramatically since April: Four Republican incumbents continue to be playing defense.

This is the ninth election cycle dating back to 2010 that PoliticsPA has published congressional vulnerability rankings for Pennsylvania’s delegation.

Our most vulnerable category — Highly Vulnerable — remains empty, but that’s cold comfort to Republicans, because the four seats in the next category, Vulnerable, are all held by the GOP. 

The seat held by four-term Republican Rep. Scott Perry, remains No. 1, but it’s now in a tie for first with fellow GOP Rep. Ryan Mackenzie. Republican Reps. Rob Bresnahan and Brian Fitzpatrick rank third and fourth.

There was only one Democrat on our previous list in April — Rep. Chris Deluzio — but we have now moved him off the list entirely. Anyone in the delegation not listed here is currently considered safe for reelection. 

Here’s our full rundown.

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HIGHLY VULNERABLE

No races

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VULNERABLE

1 (tie). 10th District: Scott Perry (R)

Elected: 2018
Geography: Harrisburg and environs: Dauphin, Cumberland, and York counties
2024 House result: Perry, 50.5%-49.3%
2024 Presidential result: Trump, 52.03%-46.82%
Partisan Voting Index (Cook Political Report with Amy Walter): R+3
Black: 10.7%
Latino: 10.9%
Asian: 5.0%
Median income: $78,636
Bachelor’s degree or higher: 36.3%
Median housing value: $258,900
Poverty rate: 10%

Although this race has been fairly quiet in recent months, Perry remains No. 1 on our list (now in a tie) because he’s facing a repeat run by a Democrat who narrowly lost in 2024, amid a much less blue environment.

Perry chaired the hardline House Freedom Caucus and was investigated by the FBI for involvement in the effort by Trump to overturn the 2020 presidential election.

In 2024, he defeated Democratic nominee Janelle Stelson by barely more than a percentage point. Stelson, a former Republican, won a six-way primary in 2024 partly on the strength of her familiarity as a longtime news anchor for WGAL-TV.

Through June 30, Stelson reported almost $4.5 million in the bank, significantly higher than Perry’s $2.8 million — a notable result for a challenger. 

Republicans paint Perry as a survivor, and one who’s managed to improve his fundraising game this cycle. But the district went to Donald Trump in 2024 by a modest five points, at a time when polls of the generic congressional ballot show Democrats leading by about eight points. Democrats will be targeting Perry aggressively until the end. A Franklin & Marshall poll released today had Stelson leading Perry, 47%-44%.

1 (tie). 7th District: Ryan Mackenzie (R)

Elected: 2024
Geography: Lehigh Valley: Primarily Lehigh and Northampton counties
2024 House result: Mackenzie, 50.4%-49.4%
2024 Presidential result: Trump, 51.07%-47.86%
Partisan Voting Index (Cook Political Report with Amy Walter): R+1
Black: 5.5%
Latino: 21.3%
Asian: 3.4%
Median income: $79,206
Bachelor’s degree or higher: 32.5%
Median housing value: $299,800
Poverty rate: 11.2%

Not much separates the top three slots on our list, but we were already tempted to move Mackenzie into a tie for first due to the fundamentals of his swingy district. Today’s Franklin & Marshall poll, showing Mackenzie trailing his Democratic challenger by a 45%-40% margin, only solidified that impulse.

Mackenzie, a former state representative, ran slightly behind Trump in 2024 as he ousted three-term Democratic Rep. Susan Wild by one percentage point. 

In a competitive primary, Democrats this year nominated Bob Brooks, president of the Pennsylvania Professional Firefighters Association and someone whose blue-collar credentials drew endorsements from such big names as Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro, Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.), and Pete Buttigieg, who served as Transportation Secretary in Joe Biden’s administration. 

Brooks has faced questions about his political acumen, and he belatedly settled a lawsuit over an unpaid loan to his former mother-in-law. 

Still, the district went for Trump only narrowly in 2024, and it is more than one-fifth Latino, a demographic that has shifted sharply against Trump during his second term. The state supreme court ended an odd episode when it took a Green party candidate off the ballot; the Green Party said it didn’t approve his candidacy under their banner. That could prevent Brooks from losing a percentage point or two.

Through June 30, Mackenzie reported an edge over Brooks in cash on hand, $2.9 million to $1 million. He’s the only Democrat in our top three races who does not have more money in the bank than the incumbent.

3. 8th District: Rob Bresnahan (R)

Elected: 2024
Geography: Northeastern Pennsylvania: Primarily Lackawanna, Luzerne, and Monroe counties
2024 House result: Bresnahan, 50.7%-49.1%
2024 Presidential result: Trump, 53.85%-45.35%
Partisan Voting Index (Cook Political Report with Amy Walter): R+4
Black: 7.1%
Latino: 15.6%
Asian: 2.1%
Median income: $61,140
Bachelor’s degree or higher: 27.1%
Median housing value: $220,800
Poverty rate: 15.3%

Like Mackenzie, Bresnahan, a construction CEO before joining Congress, flipped a Democratic-held seat in 2024, ousting six-term Democratic Rep. Matt Cartwright in this blue-collar district. 

This year, the Democratic nominee is Scranton Mayor Paige Cognetti, who leads Bresnahan in cash on hand, $3.4 million to $2.6 million.

Bresnahan has experienced a growing number of negative headlines for his stock trades as a member of Congress, even as he proposed banning lawmakers from trading stocks. 

Before voting for Trump’s One Big Beautiful Bill in 2025, Bresnahan sold shares of Centene Corp., a health care company that could be hurt by the bill’s policies on Medicaid. Politico reported that 27% of district residents rely on Medicaid.

Earlier, in April, Bresnahan traded stocks of companies that could be hit by Trump’s tariffs.

Most recently, CBS News reported that Bresnahan has supported data centers and held investments in them even as he promoted a bill to give municipalities greater say in data center siting.

As before, this race fills our No. 3 slot, rather than No. 2, because of the underlying fundamentals of the district. Trump won the 8th in 2024 by almost nine points, and the Latino share of the electorate is about five points smaller than it is in the 7th.

4. 1st District: Brian Fitzpatrick (R)

Elected: 2018
Geography: Philadelphia suburbs: Bucks County
2024 House result: Fitzpatrick, 56.2%-43.4%
2024 Presidential result: Harris, 49.67%-49.35%
Partisan Voting Index (Cook Political Report with Amy Walter): D+1
Black: 3.4%
Latino: 6.5%
Asian: 6%
Median income: $108,039
Bachelor’s degree or higher: 44.3%
Median housing value: $447,700
Poverty rate: 6.5%

This is the most challenging of the four potential Democratic flips in Pennsylvania, but Fitzpatrick has been running aggressively, which indicates that the seat is at greater risk than it has been in previous cycles. 

Fitzpatrick has consistently won reelection in a district that votes Democratic for president. In 2024, Fitzpatrick was one of only three Republicans to win in districts that backed Kamala Harris over Trump.

Democratic nominee Bob Harvie has been elected twice to the Bucks County Board of Commissioners and has served as its chair. But Harvie’s fundraising continues to lag that of other Democratic challengers on our vulnerability list — a notable shortcoming given that Bucks County is located in the pricey Philadelphia media market. In cash on hand, Fitzpatrick led Harvie through June 30 by a $6.4 million to $795,000 margin.

When it comes to the political environment, however, Harvie does have the wind at his back. In the November 2025 elections, Democrats swept five Bucks County offices, including flipping the sheriff and district attorney seats. Democrat Danny Ceisler also ousted incumbent Republican Sheriff Fred Harran by double digits, after Harran had partnered with ICE during Trump’s second term. Democrats also scored sweeping victories in Bucks County school board races.

Harvie might also get a boost from Shapiro’s reelection, which the incumbent is favored to win comfortably.

Dueling Democratic and Republican polls in August and September found Fitzpatrick up by one point and nine points, respectively, suggesting a race Fitzpatrick is leading by a mid-single-digits margin.

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POTENTIALLY VULNERABLE

No races

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MINIMALLY VULNERABLE

No races

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OFF THE VULNERABLE LIST

5. 17th District: Chris Deluzio (D)

Shift from Minimally Vulnerable

Elected: 2022
Geography: Northern suburbs of Pittsburgh: Allegheny and Beaver counties
2024 House result: Deluzio, 53.8%-46.1%
2024 presidential result: Harris, 52.28%-46.77%
Partisan Voting Index (Cook Political Report with Amy Walter): D+3
Black: 7%
Latino: 2.6%
Asian: 3.1%
Median income: $83,227
Bachelor’s degree or higher: 46.4%
Median housing value: $243,200
Poverty rate: 7.6%

Deluzio won his seat by a six-point margin in 2022, then prevailed by an impressive eight points over GOP state Rep. Rob Mercuri in 2024, running a point and a half ahead of Harris in the district. 

In theory, Deluzio’s swingy district could make him vulnerable, but he hasn’t left many openings for Republicans to exploit. 

The Republican nominee, Beaver County sheriff Tony Guy, reported having only $35,000 in the bank through June 30, which is insufficient to win a congressional race today. Neither national party is prioritizing this contest. So we’re dropping from our list.