1/22 Playbook: Is Trump’s Coalition Unraveling?

????  Today’s #PoliticsPA Playbook. Majority Say Trump’s First Year Has Been Unsuccessful. Election Year PA Budget Fight Looms. Rothman Voids Washington County GOP Vote of No Confidence in Bartolotta. Skillcations.

????  Your Morning Pick Me Up. Electrocutioner. Soraia

????  Tips. No Tax Here. PoliticsPA is Pennsylvania’s premier source for nonpartisan political news and analysis. Tips or press releases can be sent to [email protected].

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????  Sixers (23-19) | Thu vs. Houston
????  Flyers (23-17-9) | Utah 4-5 (OT) | Fri at Colorado
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????  What We’re Hearing. A group of Democrats, including Rep. Summer Lee, voted with Republicans on the House Oversight and Government Reform Committee to advance resolutions holding former President Clinton and former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton in contempt of Congress.

????  What We’re Also Hearing. “Business Matters,” a long-standing show on WFMZ’s Channel 69, will host a debate featuring Democratic contenders in the 7th Congressional District on April 1.

????  The PoliticsPA Playbook is compiled by Steve Ulrich. To read in your browser, click here. Was this email forwarded to you? Subscribe for free.


1.   Poll: Majority Say Trump’s First Year Has Been Unsuccessful

President Trump at Energy and Innovation Summit

“One year into his second term, President Donald Trump’s national approval rating is negative with 56% disapproving of his job performance and 40% voicing approval. A majority, 55-42% say that his first year has been unsuccessful rather than successful,” said Don Levy, SRI’s executive director. “Pluralities say that the country is worse off than it was a year ago and that the nation’s economy has worsened rather than improved.” | Siena Research

Elsewhere

The Voters Who Have Taken a U-Turn on Trump. “The results from today’s New York Times/Siena University poll would have looked fairly typical during his first term. Only 40 percent of registered voters say they approve of Mr. Trump’s performance, and the familiar patterns of American politics have returned. The second Trump coalition has unraveled.” | New York Times

Trump’s Strong Support In The Lehigh Valley and Northeast PA Is Splintering: ‘He Left Nothing For The Working Man’. “Scowling under a wool cap and a hood, Robert DeJesus stood in the bitter wind outside the Sunrise Diner in Allentown last week and confessed his “big mistake:” voting for President Donald Trump in 2024.” | Philadelphia Inquirer

A Very Detailed Map Of Trump’s Job Approval. “Explore our new interactive map of Trump’s job approval, powered by 12,000 survey interviews conducted in 2025 and 2026.” | Strength In Numbers

RFK Jr. Promotes Food Pyramid Overhaul In Harrisburg While PA Democrats Challenge Vaccine Guidance. “Food was the focus of U.S. Health and Human Services secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s Wednesday visit to Harrisburg, but many Pennsylvania Democrats used the trip to push back on his other health policy positions, including a recent rescheduling of childhood immunizations.” | WESA


2.   Election Year Budget Fight Looms As PA Lawmakers Brace For Another Clash

PA State Capitol Rotunda

“Pennsylvania’s divided Legislature is on a path to collide over the state’s 2026-2027 budget, just a few months after Gov. Josh Shapiro and legislative leaders cut a deal to resolve a more than four-month budget impasse for the current fiscal year. 

What’s heightening the odds for another standoff is this year’s midterm elections. Shapiro will be on the ballot this fall, and voters will pick the winners of 25 state Senate seats and all 203 House seats. As budget talks begin, lawmakers from both parties will be angling for policy wins to tout to their constituents.” | WITF

Elsewhere

Handicapping The 2026 State Legislative Map: A First Look. “In our first handicapping of state legislature control for the 2026 cycle, we find 15 chambers that are competitive—either Leans Republican, Toss-up, or Leans Democratic. That’s slightly higher than the number we found at a similar point in the 2022 and 2024 election cycles.” | Center For Politics

EMILYs List Targets Pennsylvania In Its 2026 State Power Plan. “EMILYs List, the nation’s largest resource for women in politics, announced Pennsylvania as a key target in its 2026 State Power Plan, a bold and dynamic $15 million plan to secure Democratic governing majorities across nine key states by recruiting, investing in, and supporting women candidates up and down the ballot in 2026.” | PoliticsPA

PA Gaming Control Board Reports Record Gaming Revenue For 2025. “Fueled by an increase of over 27 percent in iGaming revenue over the previous year, the Pennsylvania Gaming Control Board (PGCB) is reporting that 2025 combined gaming revenue achieved a record high. It was the fifth consecutive year of growth.” | PoliticsPA


3.   Rothman Voids Washington County GOP Vote of No Confidence in Bartolotta

Sen. Camera Bartolotta

“The situation in Washington County is turning “soap opera-esque” after the County’s Republican Party Executive Committee meeting on Jan. 13.

The group voted on a motion of “no confidence” in state Sen. Camera Bartolotta by a 21-3 vote, saying in a Facebook post that “When Republican officeholders fail to act in the best interest of Washington County residents, it is our obligation to hold them accountable and, when necessary, support efforts to replace them.”

Days later, PA GOP chair Greg Rothman declared that the Washington County vote was null and void, stating that the action “was improper, violative of the County Bylaws, inconsistent with the State Party Bylaws and is not supported by the Republican Party of Pennsylvania.”” | PoliticsPA

Elsewhere

Immigration Officers Assert Sweeping Power To Enter Homes Without A Judge’s Warrant, Memo Says. “The memo authorizes ICE officers to use force to enter a residence based solely on a more narrow administrative warrant to arrest someone with a final order of removal, a move that advocates say collides with Fourth Amendment protections and upends years of advice given to immigrant communities.” | AP

As ICE Activity Rises, Norristown Residents Are Demanding Answers Over Police Coordination: ‘This Community Is Under Siege’. “Advocates estimate ICE has detained at least 140 people in Montco since the crackdown began. “What people are seeing in Minnesota,” said one resident, “is happening here.”” | WHYY

Bill Requiring Local Support For ICE Introduced In Senate. “If there’s one claim all Pennsylvania politicians can – and often do – rely on, it’s that the divided state government forces them to work in a bipartisan manner. It’s also the reason that many reforms are out of reach and many bills seem to serve political rather than legislative aims.” | Bucks Independence

After Supreme Court Title IX Arguments, Great Valley School District Faces Federal Investigation. “The day after the Supreme Court heard arguments in two landmark cases on the issue of boys competing in girls sports and gaining access to their private spaces, the U.S. Department of Education’s Office for Civil Rights (OCR) announced investigations into 18 educational institutions across the country due to Title IX violations.” | Broad + Liberty


4.  What Do You Think?

  • CRNAs: The Science and Heart of Anesthesia | Jodie Szlachta 
  • Trump Forgot The First Rule Of Rust Belt Politics: You Gotta Give To Get | Oliver Bateman 
  • Where Are We One Year Into Trump’s ‘Golden Age of America’?’ | John Baer
  • ‘The Justices Might Actually Have to Say No, Even to the President’ | Kate Shaw, William Baude, and Stephen I. Vladeck
  • The Clintons, Contempt and Jeffrey Epstein | Wall Street Journal
  • Now Would Be A Great Time For Everyone To Chill Out | Kyle Sammin
  • Two Years In, Here’s How Philly’s Political Insiders Think Cherelle Parker Is Doing As Mayor | Paul Davies
  • Beyond NIMBY vs. Progress: How Pennsylvania Can Secure A “Durable Yes” For Data Centers | Desmond Daley


5.   A New Travel Trend: “Skillcations”

Woman painting on ceramics on a skillcation YakobchukOlena iStock

“In 2026, vacations aren’t just about switching off — they’re about coming back smarter.

Why it matters: Vacations are being redefined as investments in personal growth — a shift that’s reshaping how people use PTO and how the travel industry sells time away.

How it works: Travelers opting into “skillcations” or “curiosity leave” use PTO for trips to embark on experiences ranging from gourmet cooking to mastering mahjong. The idea is to leave refreshed and enlightened.” | Axios


Thank you for starting your Thursday with us.
Enjoy the warmer temps while we have them.

Steve Ulrich

Ulrich has worked as managing editor of PoliticsPA since January 2022 after spending two years as the Director of Elections in York (Pa.) County. Prior to that, he spent 35 years as a college athletics administrator. Send email to [email protected]